CPG brand reviewing Thanksgiving pricing data sourced by Basket Insights.

Did you know that the average Thanksgiving basket price across the country rose 5.08% versus one year ago? If we were to then ask you which region drove this growth, would you know?

What about your product? Would you know the actual price increase of your own product during Thanksgiving? No, not the Suggested Retail Price (SRP), the actual price at shelf: what your consumer sees when they’re making their purchase decision.

Price is the main driver of purchase at the shelf. Here at Basket, we know how important it is for your grocery brand to get that price right. With Thanksgiving only days away and one of the biggest food shopping days of the year about to take place, we challenge you to take a look at the data we’ve uncovered.

Will you take control of your business’s point of purchase and make more informed decisions about price in 2019?

Laser-Focused Data Revealing Troubling Trends

At Basket, we see data through a different lens. Powered by crowd-sourced data, first we see which products the average American shopper loads into their grocery list via our grocery price comparison app. Then, our team of scanners enters the marketplace, scanning on-the-shelf and promotional pricing for over 1.2 million products in 98% of grocery stores in the U.S. The result? Over four years of historical data and 18 billion prices, encompassing both in-store as well as major online retailers including Amazon and Walmart.

As Thanksgiving creeps closer, shoppers around the country are rushing to purchase shopping baskets loaded with turkeys, cranberry sauce, fresh produce, and pumpkin pie fixings. Year over year the price of a standard Thanksgiving basket has experienced extreme fluctuations in all regions. However, utilizing data sourced directly from grocery stores across the country, including blackout stores, shows a particularly interesting trend.

A Rocky 2016 Levels Out in 2017

Basket’s unobstructed view into the marketplace has enabled us to analyze the average cost of a basket of Thanksgiving goods* year over year for the past three years. The producer inflation of 2016 caused the short-term volatility of food products to rear its head, as higher feed prices affected production costs in meat, raw milk, and dairy sectors. Soy and grain products prices felt the heat as well, hiking up the general price of a Thanksgiving meal in 2016.

Yet as we rolled into 2017, all regions (save the Northeast) experienced a stark decline in prices, seemingly reversing the hike of the year prior. The West plummeted from $49.21 for a basket of Thanksgiving ingredients to $45.02, a -9.75% decrease. The South dropped -4.21% from $43.78 to $42.01, and the Midwest dropped -2.36% from $43.00 to $42.01, all on the same basket of goods. However, the Northeast actually increased 3.94% in price from 2016 to 2017, coming in at $48.42, the most expensive of all regions.

2018 Shocks Shoppers in the South

Moving into 2018, the Northeast continued to stick out like a sore thumb. While each of the other regions experienced an incremental increase in pricing, the Northeast dropped 0.98%, coming in at $47.95. The Midwest rose 0.24% to $42.11, and the West increased 2.22% to $46.04. Most surprisingly, the South wowed with an increase of 18.84%, totaling a whopping $51.76 for the same exact list of items.

Insights for CPG Brands Planning Promotions

As you begin planning your holiday pricing, it’s critical to look deeper into each region. In San Francisco, the average price of a 15-pound turkey peaks at $28.05. Meanwhile, the same size turkey is only $22.05 in Los Angeles. When you price your product for stores in these respective DMAs, do you plan accordingly? Or is your pricing uniform?

Essentially, pricing across regions is incredibly inconsistent. Adhering to top-level data will only give you the most obscure view of the market. At Basket, our Basket Insights tool grants your brand the access you need into every major grocer in America, including big box stores, discount retailers, pharmacies, and more. No matter how big or small, Basket Insights has eyes in each town, city, and metro – allowing a brand to identify conclusive trends specific to each unique area, and have the granular insights necessary to make more informed decisions around pricing and promotions.

If an entire basket of goods is 18.84% more expensive in one area, what will your brand do? Understanding the needs of an actual shopper and what their actual grocery total looks like allows you to decide where your brand fits into their grocery budget. Discover the path of your brand:

  1. Will you run a trade promotion while other brands experience a hike in prices? Consumers already overwhelmed by raised prices may gravitate towards a BOGO deal or price reduction, allowing you to sell more product.
  2. Will you also raise your prices? With a more expensive marketplace, can you afford to raise your own prices as well without affecting velocity?

Basket Insights shows you on-the-shelf and promotional prices of your products and your competitors’. It allows you to analyze pricing trends in your major metros and discover your competitors’ sales schedule. Create a successful path in the industry using historical pricing and on-demand data.

The Bottom Line

As Thanksgiving shopping makes a dent on most wallets in America, what will your profit margins do? Before you make your next promotion or pricing decision, get unlimited access to the grocery industry. Get Basket Insights.





*Basket of Goods Includes:

  • Del Monte Fresh Cut Blue Lake Cut Green Beans With Sea Salt 14.5 Oz
  • Celery Hearts 1 Lb
  • Ocean Spray Jellied Cranberry Sauce 8 Oz
  • Campbell’s Turkey Gravy 10.5 Oz
  • French’s Original French Fried Onions 6 Oz
  • Pillsbury Pie Crusts 14.1 Oz
  • Libby’s 100% Pure Pumpkin 15 Oz
  • Pepperidge Farm Classic Herb Seasoned Stuffing Mix 14 Oz
  • Loose Carrots 1 Lb
  • Loose Russet Potatoes 1 Lb
  • Butterball Frozen Whole Young Turkey 15 Lb
  • Sweet Potatoes 1 Lb